Sub-Saharan Africa: what the quarter means for investors

From July to October 2026, demand for tropical timber remained weak. At the same time, States clarified the rules governing the sector. In agribusiness, agricultural prices turned and cash flow became the central issue. Meanwhile, private capital invested increased and the BRVM reached a record level. An overview of the sectors and businesses followed by the firm, from Central Africa to East Africa.

Tropical timber: a tighter market, clearer rules

In Central Africa, the continent's leading forest basin, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) expects Gabonese output of around 3.1 million cubic metres in 2026. The sector's export revenues fell by 23.7% in 2025. Three causes are cited: the end of log exports, the Chinese property crisis and competition from Brazilian pine. The International Tropical Timber Technical Association (ATIBT) does not expect an improvement before mid-2027.

Prices are nevertheless sending a first signal. According to the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), first-grade sawn okoumé rose to 450 euros per cubic metre FOB in July, from 420 euros in June, with the return of Chinese buyers. One month does not make a trend, but the direction is the right one.

States are adjusting their rules. In Congo, the Council of Ministers of 14 October 2026 approved the bill creating an agency to control forest products for export and import, as well as the general specifications for agreements and permits, which will now be awarded by tender. In Cameroon, the 2026 finance law cuts the annual forest royalty by 25%, and by 35% for certified operators. In Gabon, the Government began in July a schedule for repaying VAT credits owed to timber manufacturers, which gives the sector visibility.

Agribusiness: agricultural prices turn

On 1 September, Côte d'Ivoire set the farm-gate price of cocoa at 1,200 CFA francs per kilo for the 2026-2027 main crop, compared with 2,800 CFA francs the previous season. In Ghana, COCOBOD expects the 2026-2027 harvest to fall by at least 16%. Across CEMAC, the BEAC price index for exported commodities fell by 21.8% in the first quarter, mainly because of cocoa.

Oil palm tells a different story: in Gabon, fresh fruit bunch harvests rose by 82.2% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the first. As for rubber, Côte d'Ivoire is on its way to becoming the world's third-largest producer of natural rubber; the value of its exports grew fivefold between 2015 and 2024. In East Africa, Kenya launched its 2026-2030 national agri-food investment plan in July.

Financing industrialisation: African savings at the centre of the debate

According to Africa Finance Corporation, the continent's domestic non-bank capital exceeds 2,000 billion dollars, more than 1,000 billion of which is held by pension funds and insurers. The question is no longer only how to mobilise capital, but how to direct it towards projects that are ready to be financed. This will be the thread of the Africa PPP summit, from 11 to 13 November 2026 in Nairobi.

Private equity and markets

According to AVCA, private capital invested in Africa reached 3.7 billion dollars in the first half of 2026, up 65% year on year, while the number of deals fell by 16%. In Abidjan, the market capitalisation of the BRVM equity market exceeded 20,000 billion CFA francs in August 2026. On 30 June, Nigeria took over the chair of the AfCFTA Council of Ministers responsible for Trade.

What investors can take away

• Judge a company on its operating cycle, not only on its margin.
• See regulatory reform as a barrier to entry as much as a cost.
• Favour local processing backed by diversified markets.

This text is a summary of public information as at the date of writing. It is neither an investment recommendation nor a rating.